Salary increase budgeting appeared to be fairly typical at the start of 2022, with a 3.0-3.5% salary increase budget competitive at that time. . Employment is projected to fall by 180,300, from just under 1.6 million in 2012 to just under 1.4 million in 2022, at an annual rate of decline of 1.2 percent. Partner for projects in Asia Pacific countries. Real output in this industry is projected to increase from $35.4 billion in 2012 to $42.9 billion in 2022. The most cited reasons for the higher projections were: Resilience tempered with cautious optimism will be the 2022 mantra for employers, with most looking to increase salaries and provide bonuses for employees particularly for critical or high-performing talent. Richard Henderson, "Industry employment and output projections to 2022," (See table 4.) Employment of self-employed and unpaid family workers is projected to fall by 198,400, from 805,800 in 2012 to 607,400 in 2022, an annual rate of decline of 2.8 percent. But despite this, pay awards are struggling to keep up with inflation. This assumes that inflation will taper down once the cost of oil decreases. The poll, which had more than 200 compensation professional participants, reported an average salary budget increase of 4.0% and a 5.0% median. PAS offers AGC members a special AGC discount to access PAS products. However, if inflation continues to increase, this phenomenon may become a reality. There are many different levers involved, he said. Employment in the mining sector also is projected to grow over the projection period, although at a slower pace than in the past because of advances in technology. Explore our latest viewpoints, thought leadership and news, offered by our CIPD experts and informed by our professional community. Increased budgets are evident across most of the worlds largest economies. Here are the key findings: Tables with details by employment category, industry, revenue, and number of employees can be found here. The maximum earnings subject to Social Security taxes in 2023 is $160,200, up from $147,000 in 2022. The median expected basic pay increase has risen from 4% to 5%, the highest since the time series started in 2012. Transform compensation at your organization and get pay right see how with a personalized demo. In New Data from Salary.com, Planned 2022 Salary Increases for American Workers are Trending Upward, Breaking a 10-year Flat Cycle 41% of organizations will have a higher salary increase budget in . Employment in the construction sector is expected to see a large increase, while still not reaching prerecession levels. In addition, real output in the industry is projected to have one of the largest increases, $185.7 billion, and one of the fastest annual growth rates, 4.8 percent. The survey, conducted between October and November of 2021, looked at 1,004 U.S. companies and found that nearly 1 in 3 respondents (32%) had bumped up original salary increase projections from . It can be difficult to keep up with relevant compensation trends and how they impact your organization. 2023 Change, Transformation & Organization Design Conference, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Conference. (See tables 3 and 5.) For more countries, budgets for the upcoming cycle have changed from increases projected earlier in 2020. These declines were followed by a 1.3-percent employment gain from 2010 to 2011 and a 1.7-percent gain from 2011 to 2012. ), The home health care services industry, which provides in-home care such as nursing and physical therapy, has the fastest growing employment of all industries, one of the largest increases in employment, and one of the fastest growing real outputs. Along with these developments, the demand for assembly-line workers has declined. However, the expected employment level of 104,400 in 2022 is still below the level of 107,400 seen in 2002. Additional insights and analyses are included in this report; 250 organizations completed the . Financial activities. If you are a current Affiliate member, you may be eligible to receive additional discount on your WorldatWork membership. The health care and social assistance sector is projected to have the most job growth, adding almost 5.0 million jobs. The 1.9-percent projected annual growth rate in employment during the 20122022 period also is slower than the 2.4-percent growth rate seen in the 20022012 period. This increase is only slightly larger than the 12,000 jobs added between 2002 and 2012. Survey data reveals Salary.com popular among mid-market and enterprise-size companies. Adding more pressure on employers to raise wages, consumer prices rose 9.1 percent year over year in June 2022, a new 41-year high, the U.S. Bureau of Labor . The projected increase of $220.5 billion also is larger than the $136.9 billion increase seen in the previous decade, and the expected annual growth rate of 3.4 percent is faster than the 2.8-percent growth rate experienced during that decade. (See table 1.) This loss is due mostly to a decrease in circulation caused by the rise of available information on the Internet, e-readers, and tablets. The recession that began in December 2007 and ended in June 20091 had a major impact on both real output and employment. Employment in the junior colleges, colleges, universities, and professional schools industry is expected to be one of the largest and fastest growing among all industries. The increase of $27.9 billion reverses the decrease of $7.7 billion seen in the previous decade. Indeed, the quits rate is now the highest in recorded history. Overview of projections to 2022, Monthly Labor Review, December 2013. Real output is expected to increase from $15.9 billion in 2012 to $18.3 billion in 2022, an increase of $2.4 billion, at 1.4 percent annually. Despite a 2.5% pay increase for much of the department's unionized workforce that summer, the starting hourly wage for corrections officers was still nearly $9 below what FedEx was offering. The industry is expected to add 711,500 jobs, at an annual rate of 4.4 percent, to reach a level of just over 2.0 million jobs in 2022. WorldatWork is a United States 501(c)(3) tax exempt organization. The following is a summary of the leading predictions for 2022: WorldatWork: WorldatWork's 2021-2022 Salary Budget Survey found that salary increase budgets are projected to grow to 3.3 percent on average in 2022, up from 3 percent in 2021. Organizations in smaller economies shared a similar fate, mostly averaging similar salary budgets in 2021 when compared to 2020. While the loss of jobs has slowed, employment in telecommunications is projected to fall by 51,000, to 807,000 in 2022, registering one of the largest declines over the projection period. Industry employment and output projections to 2024, Monthly Labor Review, December 2015. Vehicle Allowance and Practices Survey Results Unveiled According to the latest Contractor Compensation Quarterly (CCQ) published by PAS, Inc., construction executive staff wage increases came in at 5.5% for 2022 and are also projected to rise by an average 4.7% by 2023 year-end. Output growth is much faster than employment growth in the goods-producing sectors because these sectors tend to be much more productive than are the service-providing sectors. (See table 2.) The latest research, expert advice, and compensation best practices all in one place. Employment in the other educational services industry, which comprises business schools and computer and management training, technical and trade schools, other schools and instruction, and educational support services, is projected to increase from 671,500 in 2012 to 830,300 in 2022, an annual growth rate of 2.1 percent, making this industry one of the fastest growing in the economy. Although 58 of the 77 detailed industries within this sector are projected to see employment declines over the projection period, several manufacturing industries are expected to experience some growth in the next decade. Recession fears dont seem to be impacting increase budgets, Employers are increasing pay outside of the annual cycle. Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting. Employers looked to 2021 with optimism and an eye toward recovery, but many organizations around the world had to adjust to tumultuous business conditions that emerged from the pandemic. 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Growing enrollment in postsecondary institutions, a dynamic due to a larger number of high school graduates and nontraditional students seeking postsecondary education, is expected to drive most of the employment growth in this industry.23 Real output is projected to rise by $8.8 billion between 2012 and 2022, an increase smaller than the $11.1 billion increase seen during the 20022012 period. Early projections for 2023 indicate that U.S. salary increase budgets for 2023 could average 4.1%. The same study stated an anticipated 2.9% average and 3.0% median budgeted merit increases for 2022. This projected growth makes this industry one of the largest and fastest growing in terms of output. It will be interesting to observe whether these nations are, in fact, able to maintain these levels. The 2.6-percent-per-year growth rate is the fastest among all major service-producing sectors. However, manufacturing is not projected to see the postrecession rebound in employment seen in other sectors. This projected increase is the third largest among all industries. However, that rate is slower than the annual rate of decline of 4.8 percent experienced during the 20022012 period. This increase is up from the increase of $74.0 billion experienced during the previous decade. The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. April 2022 National Compensation Forecast, 12-Month Projection International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, ERI Economic Research Institute (projected increase budget), Mercer Pulse Survey (total increases including 0%), Willis Towers Watson (actual average increase), Pearl Meyer Poll (implemented total base salary increases). The service-providing sectors are responsible for the largest proportion of total employment and for the most of the job growth over the projection period. 39 percent of respondents in our survey said that the increase in inflation played a factor in their salary increase budget estimated for 2022. Residential investment is projected to grow at 7.2 percent annually between 2012 and 2022, a substantial improvement over the 5.0-percent annual decline experienced during the 20022012 period. Facing ongoing change in 2021, organizations around the world were forced to continually adapt and be resilient. You are now being redirected to the payments page. The projected loss of 25,100 jobs, at an annual rate of decline of 0.2 percent, contrasts with the 89,500 jobs added between 2002 and 2012, at an annual growth rate of 0.7 percent. 34 Ian King, PC shipments fall for 5th quarter even as U.S. decline slows, Bloomberg News, July 2013, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-10/pc-shipments-shrank-11-percent-in-second-quarter-gartner-says.html. The market-leading CompAnalyst SaaS platform accelerates compensation workflows, delivers real-time data, and powers accurate, equitable, and competitive compensation. With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, the number of people who require health insurance is expected to increase, driving demand in this industry.17 Although real output is projected to see one of the largest increases, employment is projected to grow by only 22,300, to reach just over 1.4 million in 2022. The CIPD's quarterlyLabour Market Outlook is one of the most authoritative employment indicators in the UK and provides forward-looking labour market data and analysis on employers recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions. (See table 5.) Learn about SalaryExperts 30 years of experience in salary data and compensation analysis, Reach out to us with any concerns or questions. Employment of adult basic and secondary education and ESL teachers is projected to decline 6 percent from 2021 to 2031. Over the last few projection cycles, apparel manufacturing and leather and allied product manufacturing have consistently been among the industries with the largest declines in employment and output. Despite this rapid growth, construction real output and employment are not expected to return completely to their prerecession levels. After determining your strategic goals, you can start narrowing down how to achieve those goals by setting priorities. Together, the health care and social assistance sector and the professional and business services sector are expected to account for more than a quarter of all jobs in 2022. While output is projected to grow, productivity gains in this industry are expected to result in employment declines. Actual and projected pay increase data at the city and national levels. Tools to understand human capital management and corporate performance. (See table 3.) The November Conference Board Salary Increase Budget Survey portends a 3.9% jump in wage costs for firms in 2022, compared to 3% reported in April. The average 2021 salary increase budget jumped from 2.6 percent in the April 2021 survey to 3.0 percent in the November 2021 survey and the projections for 2022 salary increase budgets jumped almost a full percentage point from 3.0 in April to 3.9 in November. Julie Murphy The goods-producing sectors, excluding agriculture, are projected to increase their real output from $5.6 trillion in 2012 to nearly $7.4 trillion in 2022, an annual rate of increase of 2.7 percent.